At the end of World War II, the conflict between the Soviet
Union, the Eastern Bloc, the Western World and NATO allies became known as the
Cold War. A common time frame for this conflict is 1947 until the collapse of
the Soviet Union in 1991. During that time many proxy wars between the two
factions took place. Once the USSR collapsed there was some form of quasi peace
as the United States became the only superpower. With the rise of Vladimir
Putin as Russian leader, we are now entering a new Cold War era but this one is
very different and possibly more dangerous.
During the period of the Cold War there was no direct
military conflict between the two Super powers, except in the sixties, when the
U.S threatened the Soviets during the Cuban missile crisis. However, each
country got involved in their own wars. More importantly, the U.S got directly
involved in Vietnam, and the USSR in Afghanistan. Both countries were involved
in covert actions such as providing and selling arms to different warring factions
around the world. The U.S supporting right leaning governments while the USSR
backing up socialist revolutionary regimes. It was a constant war of ideology,
capitalism versus socialism. Proxy wars continued for a long time until the
collapse of the USSR and the Eastern bloc. During that time there was a
constant web of reciprocal spying, including meddling in elections by both
sides. The Russians lost much of its influence around the world as they also
lost control of Eastern European countries. This downfall was never forgotten
by the new Russian President Vladimir Putin, who for a decade has been plotting
the resurgence of a Russian super power.
The rise of China as an economic power and hence a military
power we have a new player on the geopolitical scene. In addition the new world
threat of radical Islamic terrorism has created a new environment for a new
cold war, which is being used to start proxy wars. While the U.S and its allies
are mainly preoccupied with Islamic terrorism, Russia and China have been gradually
building themselves as the main rivals to the U.S. Helped by a feckless Obama
administration and foreign policy, Russia has increased its sphere of
influence. Putin took over Crimea and has now been involved in Syria. Russia
now has access to naval bases in the Mediterranean and airfields in Iran.
Meanwhile China has aggressively flexed its muscle in the South China Sea,
building artificial islands with air strips. Gaining more influence in Western
Pacific.
The most concerning situation is the military rise of Iran
and North Korea, both countries already named by the new Trump administration
as significant threats to world stability. These two countries have Russia and
China as ‘defacto mentors’. They are
used as surrogates by the two U.N Permanent Security Council members, who have
veto powers. China very mutely supports North Korea, while Russia is
increasingly helping the military buildup of Iran. The new proxy war does not
involve direct military offensives, but Iran and North Korea are used as U.S
irritants. While they preoccupy the Western world they allow Russia and China
to increase their military might and territorial influence. The greatest proxy
war threat will come through cyber-attacks on power grids, water supplies, and
on banking and economic infrastructures.
I believe that it is this cat and mouse play by Russia and
China, indirectly helped by the rise of Islamic terrorism, which gave rise for Trump’s
call on NATO countries to increase their contributions. Today it is clear that
The U.S bears the brunt of the military costs for being the policeman of the
world. Out of the 28 members of NATO only 5 actually fulfill their 2% of GDP
contribution commitment. The other 23 countries, including Canada, are mostly
ruled by leftist Liberal governments who have curtailed their military budgets,
and instead have invested in costly social programs which are difficult to roll
back. Autocratic governments like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea on the
other hand continue to build their arsenal and sponsor terrorism. Most
importantly Iran and North Korea pursue a policy of nuclear buildup and
proliferation, which I believe includes collusion and cooperation between the two
countries. This covert cooperation can be seen in the nuclear and missile test
by North Korea and missile test and terrorism sponsorship by Iran.
Where do we go from here? What can the world do to stem
these global and dangerous threats? While very difficult and demanding I
believe that there are some strategic alliances that should and can be built to
make real strides to prevent another world war.
In my humble opinion, I see a number of possible solutions:
On defeating Radical
Islamic terrorism, there is a possibility of a coalition between Russia, China
and the Arab world. There are many common interests in doing a deal. Russia has
to worry about Chechnya, China battles Uyghur militants, as for the Arabs,
despite the divide between Shia and Sunni factions there still exists the
desire among some to defeat the terrorists.
Iran and North Korea are a different proposition. Obama’s
deal with Iran has created a major problem for Israel, the Middle East and the
world. North Korea is a dictatorship supported by China which is a major
destabilizing threat in South East Asia, mainly to its neighbours Japan and
South Korea. The actions of these two countries can only be resolved through UN
sanctions backed by both Russia and China. Unfortunately the UN has become a
dysfunctional organization which no longer has any will, credibility or teeth
left.
A Korean solution can only be achieved with the help of
China. One way to get this done is through new trade relationships with China.
It is possible that the Trump administration could get something done on that
front. Otherwise the only alternatives left are either a regime change led by
China, or war with North Korea, which is not the preferred solution.
The post-Obama era is worse than the post-Carter years. The
world and nations are divided. We have reached a dangerous point in our history
and it is not Trump’s fault if the world gets into a real war. It would be the
bad deals and agreements made by Obama and previous administrations such as the
failure to curtail North Korea before they acquired nuclear weapons, and the
return of billions of dollars to Iran who can now sponsor terrorism at will.
The Western world should wake up and acknowledge the real dangers that the
world faces. We must abandon political correctness and appeasement; resort to
strategic alliances to find lasting solutions.
Remember that the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’. The real
issue is choosing the right friend.
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